WARNING: Hold on to your chair, get a cup of coffee ‘cause this is gonna be a bit lengthy post, this one! A tentative analysis on current affairs here. (Part 1)
Only 2 liters pr person. Hundreds of people in Kathmandu are queuing up all morning to get a bit of kerosene fuel for cooking. Supplies are hit by acute shortage. Photo 21. February 2008 © Morten Svenningsen.
For more than a week now, the Tarai region of Nepal (southern lowlands bordering India) have been home to demonstrations, road blockades and violent clashes between police and demonstrators. Vandalism, torching, bombings have ensued, curfews clamped and hundreds are hurt and one person killed.
The immediate effects are not only limited to the region, but have partly paralyzed the capital and the rest of the nation. As all fuel are being trucked in from India, the shut-down in Tarai has cut off the capital Kathmandu and added acutely to the general fuel shortage. 70% of public transport are off the road, held up in mile-long queues outside closed petrol stations. Schools and businesses have closed and tourists are stranded around in various parts of the country as people are no-longer able to commute. Gas and kerosene is largely used for cooking. Prices are regulated by the government but a black market has emerged, on which prices in some instances have doubled, primarily hitting the poorest part of the population.
On longer term, the civil unrest threatens to disrupt the constituent assembly election scheduled for April 10 and, if a solution is not found, the situation can escalate and ultimately tear the country apart.
Who, what and why?
The people living in the Tarai region are a mixed lot. There are indigenous groups, groups culturally linked to neighbouring India and migrant groups who have moved there from the upper hill regions during the last one or two generations. And their demands vary from some sort of symbolic recognition, to autonomous self-governance and complete independence from the rest of Nepal.
Nepal is a multi-ethnic country, but in it’s present 240 year old incarnation, it has been ruled and dominated by an elite minority of powerful upper caste Hindu men from Kathmandu and the middle hill region. So Kathmandu-centered have the society been that you still find old people who uses “Nepal” as a term meaning “The Kathmandu Valley”.
In some cases the people of Tarai have not enjoyed the same civil rights as the elite and the economic development has been markedly slower in the Tarai region despite the more fertile land and geographic advantages.
With a derogatory term, the hill people are still heard from time to time referring to their Tarai countrymen as “dhoti’s”.
These are some of the main woes of the Tarai inhabitants, also referred to as Madheshi’s.
A political hodgepodge
But it is hard to pin down an exact agenda for this “Madheshi movement”. In fact there are more than 20 separate groups claiming to represent the Madheshi’s. If you will allow me to be light-hearted for a moment, it can remind one of a scene in Monty Pyton’s comedy “Life of Brian”. The dialogue goes something like this:
[Three men sitting and discussing politics in an arena:]
A: “Can I join you in the Peoples Revolutionary Front?”
B: “We’re not the Peoples Revolutionary Front, we’re the Revolutionary People’s Front!”
C: “I thought we were the Revolutionary Front of the People!!”
B: “No, he’s sitting over there!!!”
But it is tragic. Because many of the groups are militant as well as political and the death toll in Tarai since the People’s Uprising (Jana Andolan) in Nepal in 2006 is now somewhere in the region of 50 to 80 people. Long gone passed the 20 or so who died in the People’s Uprising in 2006. Here’s a quick list of some of the groups:
UMDF United Democratic Madhesi Front, the umbrella
organization behind the current unrest.
MJF Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (a.k.a. Madheshi
Peoples’ Rights Forum)
JTMM-G Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha, Goit faction,
a.k.a. Democratic Terai Liberation Front
JTMM-J d.o. (Jwala Singh faction)
JTMM-B d.o. (Bishfot Singh faction)
MMM Madheshi Mukti Morcha
TMM Tharu Mukti Morcha
MMF Madhesh Mukti Force
MRMM Madheshi Rashtriya Mukti Morcha (a.k.a.
Madheshi National Liberation Front),
BMNF The Broader Madheshi National Front
consisting of the Dalit Janajati Party, Madhesi
Loktantrik Morcha (Madheshi Democratic Party)
and Loktantrik Madheshi Morcha (Democratic
Madheshi Party)
JTLF Janatantrik Terai Liberation Front
(Maoist splinter group)
MM(L)T Terai Tigers, a.k.a. Madheshi Mukti
(Liberation) Tigers
MRB Madhesh Raksha Bahini (the Madhesh
Security Brigade) the militant youth wing of
the Nepal Sadbhawana Party, NSP
(did I get all that right?...)
And some without fancy acronyms, but interesting names:
and last, but not least the
YCL Young Communist League, the Maoists’
secret weapon. When the Maoists agreed to
confine their troops in UN-supervised camps as
part of the “comprehensive peace agreement”,
they just set up a new wing (or rather,
old wing) to take care of their “security issues”.
Mistrust and democratic spirit
The present complicated political scenario makes it nearly impossible to satisfy everyone through special negotiations. Mistrust is wide spread. Of course, one of the purposes of the constituent assembly election is to sort out the state structure through democratic process. In a democratic process, you don’t get more influence than taking part in shaping a new constitution. The Madheshi movements knows this but they demand to be promised “proportional representation”. They are not alone on this demand. Other ethnic groups like the Limbuwans, Khumbuwans, Dalits and Tamangs are pushing similar agendas.
But this is democracy misunderstood. Or at least distorted due to deep mistrust. In democracy you don’t necessarily cast your vote on the person who resembles you the most. You vote on whoever you trust and share views and political visions with. If all of Nepal’s more than 100 ethnic groups demand direct representation, it will be an ethnic assembly in stead of a political assembly. The inter-ethnic mistrust is deep-rooted when it comes to politics and have unfortunately been validated by history. As previously noted, power has always been centered around upper-caste Hindu men.
Election or explosion?
All this (and more) is spinning around the coming election twice postponed and now scheduled for April 10. Clapping with one hand, the Koirala Government promises to solve all problems (yes, they actually say “all problems”) but remains to show anything but complete political, democratic and managerial incompetence. The ageing and fragile prime minister, GP Koirala, has so far simply been unable to put his home in order. And the root causes of conflict remains: While the country is managing things (barely) on a macro-economic scale, it is in a micro-economic disaster. Unemployment is high and a couple of jumbo-jets are daily transporting people out of the country for foreign employment. And corruption continues unabated on all government levels.
Like the de-railed political process in Kenya, I fear that a similar situation is likely here in Nepal. The Tarai problem is explosive, but no less is the question of monarchy. The Maoists’ current politics of “non-violence” are only likely to be adhered to as long as they leave a significant footprint on main political themes, and most prominently their demand for a republic. In recent days, their leader Prachanda has actually been testing the waters to find peoples view of him as Nepal’s first president.
But before he dreams himself to far away from reality, there is an election to win. I would not be surprised if he would be rather disappointed with the election result. One voting analysis last year gave his party about 15% of the votes.
And if he does get his republican agenda through, and ousts the king, he will make a lot of Hindu people upset. Fundamentalists, of course. The Indian right-wing BJP party, possibly (bemused in common Nepali belief to sway an enormous influence on Nepal’s government. While this might have been the case 20 years ago, it is hard to see objective evidence matching the rumors any longer). And finally, the common Hindu man and woman. I have spoken to several people, in fact I would call them a silent majority, who support the king. Not because of his personal traits, but because they are Hindus and he is their king. They are surprisingly numerous among my contacts, but more surprisingly not many of them are actually likely to go and cast their vote. I just wonder what they will do with their beliefs and convictions if a republican order is implemented and the palace is demolished.
A new garden
I am happy to see that a serious and substantial political debate is finally starting to hit the street corners and tea shops in Kathmandu. Finally, at least the election is starting to seem realistic. Still many risks on the road ahead though. Nepalis have to decide about their “New Nepal”. How new will it be? How many of the old customs and institutions will remain? Nepal has a long history of integrating new and old in sometimes logically contradictory constructions. But if they want to grow some new plants in their “garden of 4 casts and 36 ethnicities” as their founder called the country 240 years ago, they’ll have to cut down some of the old trees, won’t they?
