Nepal: Post-election thoughts

Maoist supporter holding up their well-know symbol.
© Morten Svenningsen 2008

While the ballots are still being counted, it is now safe to say that the Maoists were the big winners of last week constituent assembly election here in Nepal. They’ve secured more than half of the seats in the first-past-the-post election constituency that’s been counted so far (114 out of 207) and about a third of the votes in the proportional representation election so far. If this tendency holds, they stand to get about 250 of the 601 seats in the new all-powerful assembly. It’s not impossible that they will actually get a bit more, giving them an absolute majority! A bit of a shocker to everyone, themselves included I’m sure, despite what some of them have been saying.

The election day went by quite peacefully although the days leading up to it was marred by some violence, with 5 or 6 people killed in various clashes that threatened to make it look like Kenya for a while. But were some of the votes given under duress? These allegations are starting to appear from various quarters, most notably Minister Mahat of the still ruling Congress party who stands to loose control over the government. Re-polling still have to take place in almost a 100 polling stations where the election was cancelled due to irregularities. But by and large, whatever happens, it seems that the election results are being accepted as “free and fair”, if not 100% then at least close enough - enough to accept the election result and continue with the next step.

So what is the next step? Well, first there’s been some “bad omens” here, in the highly superstitious country. Just after Maoist leader Prachanda gave his victory speech, a virulent storm descended on the valley, chasing everybody into shelter. A day later, a 100 feet high pole fell down and injured 12 people during a festival. Same thing happened just before the 2001 royal massacre. And in Bhaktapur where I was celebrating Nepalese New Year, the crowd had to abandon the chariot before it had completed it’s ritual journey (it’s a long explanation). They sacrificed a few roosters the next morning so maybe it’s all cool with the Gods now.

No, seriously, it’s now unavoidable: They’re gonna turn this country into a (communist) republic and abolish the monarchy. (Personally, I can’t wait to see what’s gonna happen to the king!) Then they’ll rewrite the constitution and start to run this country in some way. That’s also gonna be really interesting to witness.

I can’t help but think how the Maoists are gonna manage the task, if they’re up to it. So far their activities have been mostly of a destructive nature, being against the establishment and this and that. Now they are the establishment and they have to show themselves constructive in rebuilding the country and delivering on their promises. I don’t want to be too pessimistic, but I am afraid that they will disappoint the optimistic population who have just given them the chance they have been asking for to lead the country (and turn it into an Asian Switzerland in 10 years, remember Prachanda actually said that?-). Again, with risk of being too much a generalist, some of these voters are really politically naive, IMHO. The Maoists don’t have a magic wand to make it all better overnight and, what’s more interesting, do they have control over their rank and file? - And can they now control and manage the nation and it’s administration without resorting to high-handedness?

Well, maybe they can pull it off. They’ve now got the chance no matter why people voted for them. In fact it might be more correct to say that the people voted, not for the Maoists, but against the old NC and UML party bosses. So from next month, I’ll probably be living in a communist republic! Whooo, what’s that gonna be like?