A time to vote

Nepal deciding on monarchy. Well, sort of. At least in final preparations for holding election to a constituent assembly.
Photo © Morten Svenningsen.

Everybody’s talking ‘bout it here, so thought I’d give you my perspective as well...


We’re entering into uncertain times here in Nepal - again. It’s just 5 days to the election here, and it’s by no means an ordinary one. In fact, it can turn out to be a historic milestone in the country’s path towards democracy. Or it can turn out to be the spark that ignites new strife and civil war. My guess is it’ll turn out to be a little bit of both, typical Nepali style, neither this nor that, yes and no at the same time!


The fact that it’s an important event is not hard to miss. No matter who you talk to these days, the subject always turns to the election. And it seems every office you call, you get the same answer: Come back after the election! Four public holidays have been declared next week, schools closed for two weeks, the border with India sealed for 48 hours, alcohol banned on election day and the city here (Kathmandu) is buzzing with speeches coming out of distorting loudspeakers and international reporters and observers etc. Even good old Jimmy Carter is on his way here.

No, there’s definitely something special going on in Nepal these days!


Personally, I’m hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. The election itself can easily be marred by violence and bomb blasts, but it now seems unstoppable, unlike the previous two occasions where it was postponed - not to mention the general mess when the previous election term expired and they weren’t capable / willing to hold a new one.

So OK, the election is coming and besides the actual election results, there’s some other interesting points up in the air:


What’s the election aftermath going to look like?
- Hopefully not Kenya! While the first election results should start to tick in in the ensuing days, we’ll probably have to wait several weeks for the final result - perhaps even months. The country will be in a state of limbo, and there’ll be plenty of opportunity for disgruntled election losers to stir up trouble in the streets. For instance (but not excluding others) the Maoists have already stated that, since they are sure to win, any other result must be equal to fraud and rigged results by the usual “regressive forces etc.”, and therefore completely unacceptable!

Irregularities are almost sure to arise, but even if they don’t, it won’t exactly be a “free and fair” democratic election. Some of the dubious points already:

1. The Code of Conduct has not been adhered to. There has been election related violence, bomb blasts and killings already. Intimidations have been used. Part of the population are afraid to go and give their vote.

2. The candidates are not selected democratically. They have been appointed by the party leaders who again have the power to decide which candidate should get the seats the party has won. It’s not necessarily the candidate with the most votes who get the seat!

3. Top candidates have been given the “safe” election constituencies. Especially women candidates have been given the constituencies that the respective parties stand to loose.

4. Many voters simply don’t understand the election and how to vote. It has been made fairly complicated with a mixed voting system comprising both the first-past-the-post system and the proportional representation system.

But perfectly free and fair elections aside, it might still turn out to be “good enough and workable” to draw up a new constitution. Then again, it might not...


So what’s gonna happen to the King?
Good question, guess they’ll have to de-throne him somehow. It’s now actually written in the (amendment of the) interim constitution that monarchy will be abolished in the first session of the newly elected “all-powerful assembly”. Funny way of playing democracy, isn’t it? Going through all the trouble of electing 601 representatives who’s duty it then is - not to decide on, but - to implement an already stipulated condition, haggled in place by 3 old, male, upper-caste Pahadi tyrants!


So who’s gonna win the damn thing?
Anybody’s guess, really. Estimates I’ve heard can’t be described as being representative for Nepal’s extremely diverse population. I’m also not gonna dare a guess, so no conclusions here, but Madhav Kumar Nepal’s UML party could get a good share if they don’t loose too much to the Maoists. Maoists probably haven’t won many votes on the basis of their 10 year campaign of violence, but they represent change and so could take a lot of protest votes. The last of the big 3, the now re-unified Congress-niks have traditional support from traditionalists. And Nepal is in many ways a country of tradition. But will they stand this time? No answer here, no conclusion. But wait and see...


PS: However it’s gonna play out, I’ll be posting photo’s of the events on this page : Nepal election photos. - So be sure to check in from time to time.